What the sea would do, left to its own devices, was predictable, it would rise, then fall. What the wind would do, no man could tell.
Men of Dunwich. Rowland Parker.
Somewhat belatedly, is it is now July, this discussion will look at annual Maximum Observed Tide levels at Lowestoft Tide Gauge for three dates in the month of January. This discussion uses data provided by the British Oceanographic Data Centre. Examination of Maximum Observed Tidal data began in 2022, following an exceptionally high storm surge on 30th January 2022. Therefore 3 dates in January were chosen to enable a study over a reasonable period of time and view extreme sea levels in context. Through the collection of a random sample of data for the dates of 1st, 15th and 30th of January. Analysis of Tidal data has continued with 2025 marking 10 years of analysis of Maximum Observed Tidal data.
This discussion coincides with the recent release of the Met Office State of the Climate Report for 2024, which found from the start of the 20th Century, Sea Level Rise (SLR) increased by around 19.5 cm. Although the figure is qualified as data is obtained from a small number of tidal gauges, with data missing for some years, for certain gauges. A new tool was also launched recently by the Environment Agency to check risk of coastal erosion in the short, medium and long term, under different climate change scenarios.
It isn’t necessarily the intention to link observation of tide heights to SLR, particularly as each annual edition of the Met Office State of the Climate report states that provision of Maximum Tide Height data, simply shows values which is subject to annual and date specific variability. Whereas the 99th percentile method chosen, by the Met Office to measure SLR selects data from 1%, or 88 hours in a given year.
To look at 10 years of tide data, the chart below displays Observed Maximum Tide Heights for the 1st, 15th and 30th of January over the years 2015 – 2025.
Lowestoft Maximum Observed Tide Data 2015 – 2025
This discussion uses data provided by the British Oceanographic Data Centre
| Lowestoft | |
| Country | UK |
| Latitude of measuring point | 52° 28′ 22.8″ N |
| Longitude of measuring point | 01° 45′ 03.0″ E |
| OS grid ref. of measuring point | TM 5483 9273 |
| Datum reference | All data refer to Admiralty Chart Datum (ACD) ACD = ODN -1.50m |
| Time reference | GMT (hours 00-23) |
The chart displays the natural fluctuations of the tides over a 10-year period. with a small number of instances where tide heights appear more elevated. It has been found that with the exception of 2016, the four remaining instances of extreme maximum Tidal Heights seem to be clustered around the last four years of data collection, the years 2022 to 2025. Additionally, the average tide height observed in the ten years of tide height data from 2015 to 2025 is 2.72 m, which might be considered a high figure.
But January is associated with increased likelihoods of stormy weather. For example, in 2025, on the 1st January, the Maximum Observed Tide height was 3.18 m at 10:00 pm, with a surge value 0.6 m. Indicating a deviation from the predicted tide height of 2.52 metres. Weather conditions for New Years Day included a Met office forecast for wind gusts of 48 mph earlier in the day, with wind gusts forecast to drop to 34/32 mph at 4-5pm, with a yellow wind warning in force. Conditions could be likely to generate a surge.
For the remaining maximum tide height values for January 2025, on 15th January the observed tide height was 2.82 metres, and on the 30th January the maximum observed tide height was 2.7 metres. Both of the tides on the 15th and 30th January were Spring Tides, with no notable weather systems to contribute to the elevated tide heights.
In 2016 a tide height of 3.1m was observed on 15th January and a tide height of 3.2 m was observed on 30th January, with surge values of 0.46 on 15th January and 0.72 on 30th January. On the 29th January 2016, a named storm Gertrude occurred, so this could have pushed sea levels above predicted heights.
Elevated Maximum Observed Tide heights for 2022 have been discussed separately and for 2023, there were no notable weather conditions that could have contributed to the high tide height of 3.01 m. The maximum observed tide height for the 15th January 2024 of 3.37 m occurred during exceptionally stormy weather. Noteworthy, as it was the second highest maximum observed tide height recorded over ten years of analysis.
Examination of ten years of tide height data from 2015 to 2025, provides a useful introduction to observations of tidal patterns. But the title of this consideration was a play on the concept that tide heights can be predicted but the effect of the weather can alter tidal behaviours. But tides are also complex, with many more elements which will be considered in future discussions. Such considerations could focus on future predictability, in an era of rising SLR and weather intensities and how such uncertainties might impact vulnerable coast locations.
alteredcoast 